Australia: Job Advertisements fall moderately in July

The total number of Australian jobs advertised in major metropolitan newspapers and on the internet fell by a seasonally adjusted 0.3 percent in July to a weekly average of 261,936 per week. This follows a 3.0 percent decrease in June. The total number of advertisements in July was 5.5 percent higher than 12 months ago. In trend terms the total number of job advertisements fell by 0.7 percent in July.

Looking at the different channels for advertising jobs, the number of job advertisements in major metropolitan newspapers decreased by 5.1 percent in July to an average of 15,739 per week. This followed a 3.5 percent decrease in June. Newspaper job advertisements are now 21.7 percent lower than in July 2007. In trend terms, the number of newspaper job advertisements are 19.1 percent lower than a year ago.

The fall in newspaper job advertisements in July was driven by decreases in South Australia, Victoria, Western Australia, Queensland, New South Wales, and the Northern Territory. In contrast, Tasmania and the ACT both had solid gains in newspaper job advertisements.

The number of internet job advertisements was stable at an average of 246,197 per week in July up slightly from an average of 246,112 in June. In trend terms, internet job advertisements continued to fall by a modest 0.5 percent in July, although they remain 8.8 percent higher than a year ago.

ANZ Head of Australian Economics Warren Hogan, said: “Total job advertisements continued to weaken in July largely because of 5.1 percent decline in newspaper advertisements. Internet advertisements were unchanged in July and are 7.9 percent above year ago levels. The overall trend in job advertisements continues to weaken, indicative of a softening in hiring intentions across Australia in 2008. The level of job advertisements remains at high levels, particularly internet ads, and in July the overall rate of decline has slowed. However, recent trends in job advertisements suggest that we will see an easing of employment growth in coming quarters, consistent with the slowing in domestic economic conditions in Australia over the first half of 2008. On this basis we expect to see a gradual drift up in the unemployment rate over the year ahead. ANZ is forecasting unemployment to be around 4.9 percent by June 2009.